Luck: The art of a near miss

Abstract

In six studies, student subjects were given short descriptions of persons experiencing the same degree of success under different circumstances, and asked to decide in each case who is most lucky (in the case of success), and who is most unlucky (in the case of failure). Typically, the most ‘lucky’ person is the winner who most easily could, or should, have lost, and the most ‘unlucky’ is the loser who could, or should, have won. Factors contributing to counterfactual closeness, and thus to the experience of luck, are: Physical closeness, temporal order, choice, how “real” is the alternative, and how much is it deserved. By manipulating such factors, a vignette describing two misfortunes can appear lucky (because they move the victim away from close counterfactual success); and a vignette where one out of two lottery players wins a big prize can be construed as an example of bad rather than good luck (if the other deserved to win).

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