Development and Crime: A Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis of Competing Models

Abstract

Current cross-national research indicates that economic development affects crime rates. Two competing models, the Durkheimian and opportunity, claim to explain this relationship. However, the research evaluating their adequacy is flawed. It attempts to assess the effects of change using cross-sectional designs and variables that measure level of, rather than actual change in, economic development.This study evaluates these competing explanatory models by analyzing the effects of level of development and rate of growth on crime rates. The findings indicate that both affect the rate and type of crime in ways that refute the Durkheimian and only offer qualified support for the opportunity model. A pooled time-series, cross-sectional analysis that controls for possible spurious factors reveals interesting nonlinear effects that allow further specification of the crime and development relationship.

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