Cliometric Metatheory III: Peircean Consensus, Verisimilitude and Asymptotic Method

Abstract

Statistical procedures can be applied to episodes in the history of science in order to weight attributes to predict short-term survival of theories; an asymptotic method is used to show that short-term survival is a valid proxy for ultimate survival; and a theoretical argument is made that ultimate survival is a valid proxy for objective truth. While realists will appreciate this last step, instrumentalists do not need it to benefit from the actuarial procedures of cliometric metatheory. 1. Introduction2. A plausible proxy for Peircean consensus3. Assessing the validity of theory attributes as predictors of theory survival3.1 Linear discriminant function3.2 Factor analysis3.3 Taxometric analysis4. Verisimilitude index5. Satisfying both instrumentalists and realists6. Recapitulation7. Implementation of cliometric metatheory

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