The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

Graham Bird · Dane Rowlands

22 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Policy Reform

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Global Financial Crisis and Policies International Development and Aid Economic, financial, and policy analysis

Abstract

In recent years, the International Monetary Fund has seen a spate of critical analyses of its lending activities. It has even been suggested that politics influences the allocation of IMF lending with powerful industrialized countries being able to use Fund lending to further their own ambitions. We ask simple questions? Why did some countries borrow from the Fund when our models predicted that they would not? Why did other countries not borrow when our models predicted that they would? We resort to qualitative analysis of the individual cases to see whether we can retrospectively and reasonably explain our prediction failures.

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References

1999The High Politics of IMF Lending 1998Aid and the Political Economy of Policy Change 1994IMF lending programs: Participation and impact 1997Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements 1993The Politics of Reform in Ghana, 1982-1991 1997IMF Programmes in Developing Countries: Design and Impact 2003IMF Programmes in Developing Countries 2001IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?

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