A Model of Religious Choice Under Uncertainty

Abstract

This article analyzes a general model of religious choice under uncertainty by interpreting Pascal's wager as an expected utility problem and faith as insurance. The authors assert that the basic religious choice is one of faith and that religious practice is essentially the allocation of time required to maintain a level of faith in an uncertain environment. The optimal amount of faith and hence the optimal amount of religious practice are determined in part by the costs of maintaining faith, which depend on, among other things, the level of religious capital. The solution to the expected utility problem yields several interesting predictions regarding both the high percentage of individuals choosing at least some positive level of faith and the variation in faith levels across individuals. A series of regressions provide evidence indicating general support for the main predictions of the model.

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