Serial-position effects in preference construction: a sensitivity analysis of the pairwise-competition model

Abstract

People have a stronger preference for options encountered earlier or later in a sequence than for options in the middle of the sequence. To account for these primacy and recency effects, Mantonakis et al. (2009) sketched a sequential updating mechanism, the pairwise-competition model. We propose a formal instantiation of the model and, using computer simulations, examine how the sizes of the predicted primacy and recency effects are affected by (a) variability in the quality of the options; (b) the number of options presented (sequence length); (c) the level of choice inertia (i.e., the tendency to stick with the current favorite); and (d) whether choice inertia dynamically increases over the sequence. We find that recency effects are reduced and primacy effects are increased with variability in quality as compared to without, and that this holds regardless of sequence length. A sizeable primacy effect occurs only with relatively short sequences or rather high levels of choice inertia. Dynamic inertia increases primacy effects and reduces recency effects, and the impact increases with higher inertia levels. We relate these results to empirical findings and derive novel predictions from the model.

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