Article1985

A Time Series Model for Cohort Data

24 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the American Statistical Association

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Family Dynamics and Relationships Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Many forms of behavior are both age and cohort dependent. An appropriate way of disentangling these two kinds of effects is to examine changes between successive cohorts. Data on recent cohorts are always incomplete. A univariate time series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data of recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account. By way of illustration, the model is applied to Dutch marital fertility rates.

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1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1965The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control 1985The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change 1973Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data 1982Estimable Functions of Age, Period, and Cohort Effects 1985Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Demography: A Review 1982Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Demography: A Review

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2019A Principal Component Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility – Impacts of Family and Social Policy on Reproductive Behavior in Germany 2020Forecasting of Cohort Fertility Under a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach 1989Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods

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