For decades most analyses of urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa have started from the premise that towns and cities there are growing rapidly, both in absolute numbers and relative to the rural population. Levels of urbanisation – the proportion of a country’s population living in urban settlements – are thus asserted to be rising rapidly also. For many analyses, a central theme is the swift approach of the time when more than half of Africa’s population will be living in towns (e.g. UN-HABITAT, 2008; 2010a; 2010b). In some it is also noted that these phenomena rest on the continuation of significant net transfers of rural people to urban settings via rural–urban migration (e.g. Locatelli and Nugent, 2009) and this in turn may lead to a discussion of how this is problematic, or even puzzling, given the high levels of unemployment and poverty typical of many African towns (e.g. Oucho, 1998; Jamal and Weeks, 1993), although for a counterview regarding the economic link (but not the rapidity of urbanisation) see Fay and Opal (2000). It may also be noted that rates of growth and increases in the level of urbanisation are hard to specify, albeit they are known to be high, because of many gaps in the data (e.g. Oucho, 1998).
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