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Forecasting Beta: How Well Does the ‘Five‐Year Rule of Thumb’ Do?
14 references·4 citing·43 second hop
Forecasting Beta: How Well Does the ‘Five‐Year Rule of Thumb’ Do? (2000)Forecasting Beta: How Well Does the ‘Five…Time‐Varying Beta Risk of Australian Industry Portfolios: A Comparison of Modelling Techniques (1998)Time‐Varying Beta Risk of Aus…Time‐varying Beta Risk for Australian Industry Portfolios: An Exploratory Analysis (1998)Time‐varying Beta Risk for Au…Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors (1997)Share Prices and Macroeconomi…Beta stability and portfolio formation (1994)Beta stability and portfolio …The form of time variation of systematic risk: some Australian evidence (1992)The form of time variation of…Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk (1987)Some Further Evidence on the …An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model (1984)An Empirical Investigation of…THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS (1975)THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECA…BETAS AND THEIR REGRESSION TENDENCIES (1975)BETAS AND THEIR REGRESSION TE…ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK: SOME FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS (1974)ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK: SO…Evidence on the Information Content of Accounting Numbers: Accounting-Based and Market-Based Estimates of Systematic Risk (1973)Evidence on the Information C…A NOTE ON USING CROSS‐SECTIONAL INFORMATION IN BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF SECURITY BETAS (1973)A NOTE ON USING CROSS‐SECTION…On the Short-Term Stationarity of Beta Coefficients (1971)On the Short-Term Stationarit…ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK (1971)ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISKThe Determinants of Systematic Risk: A Firm Lifecycle Perspective (2016)The Determinants of Systemati…Determinants of market beta: the impacts of firm-specific accounting figures and market conditions (2013)Determinants of market beta: …Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques (2012)Conditional market beta for R…Herd Behavior Towards the Market Index: Evidence from 21 Financial Markets (2008)Herd Behavior Towards the Mar…“ARE BETAS BEST?”† (1978)On the Estimation and Stability of Beta (1980)Estimation of expected return: CAPM vs. Fama and French (2004)Evaluation of Economic Forecasts (2016)The capital asset pricing model: Some empirical tests (1972)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets. (1973)Co-Skewness and Capital Asset Pricing (1980)Optimization Methods in Finance (2006)The option pricing model and the risk factor of stock (1976)The relationship between return and market value of common stocks (1981)Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality (1983)A contribution to event study methodology with an application to the Dutch stock market (1992)TIME STATIONARITY OF SYSTEMATIC RISK: SOME AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE (1992)Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques (2008)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Beta as a Random Coefficient (1978)Conditional coskewness and asset pricing (2006)Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk (2011)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets (1965)The Prediction of Systematic and Specific Risk in Common Stocks (1973)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)Market-Based Empirical Research in Accounting: A Review, Interpretation, and Extension (1982)Friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk (1983)The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices (1965)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)An Investigation of the Information Content of (Certain) Social Responsibility Disclosures (1978)Towards Reconciliation of Market Performance Measures to Strategic Management Research (1986)An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk (1988)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies (1996)Socially Responsible Investment and cleaner production in the Asia Pacific: does it pay to be good? (2013)Firm and industry specific determinants of capital structure: Evidence from the Australian market (2018)The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives (2018)Time-varying estimates of CAPM betas (1999)The relationship between conditional stock market volatility and conditional macroeconomic volatility (2002)A best choice among asset pricing models? The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model in Australia (2004)Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading (1979)Foundations of Portfolio Theory (1991)Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks (1980)Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Betas (2005)
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References

  • 1971ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK721 cited
  • 1975BETAS AND THEIR REGRESSION TENDENCIES548 cited
  • 1973A NOTE ON USING CROSS‐SECTIONAL INFORMATION IN BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF SECURITY BETAS477 cited
  • 1984An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model280 cited
  • 1973Evidence on the Information Content of Accounting Numbers: Accounting-Based and Market-Based Estimates of Systematic Risk243 cited
  • 1971On the Short-Term Stationarity of Beta Coefficients227 cited
  • 1998Time‐Varying Beta Risk of Australian Industry Portfolios: A Comparison of Modelling Techniques173 cited
  • 1975THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS144 cited
  • 1997Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors143 cited
  • 1987Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk133 cited
  • 1974ON THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK: SOME FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS104 cited
  • 1992The form of time variation of systematic risk: some Australian evidence85 cited
  • 1998Time‐varying Beta Risk for Australian Industry Portfolios: An Exploratory Analysis57 cited
  • 1994Beta stability and portfolio formation49 cited

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  • 2008Herd Behavior Towards the Market Index: Evidence from 21 Financial Markets

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31 cited
  • 2013Determinants of market beta: the impacts of firm-specific accounting figures and market conditions27 cited
  • 2012Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques24 cited
  • 2016The Determinants of Systematic Risk: A Firm Lifecycle Perspective21 cited