Nigerian Oil and Exchange Rates: Indicators of ‘Dutch Disease’

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article assesses the impact of expanding oil revenues on non‐oil sectors of the Nigerian economy from 1960 to 1985/6. Emphasis is placed on the effects of exchange rate appreciation during the 1970s on the agricultural, manufacturing and non‐traded goods sectors. The analysis is conducted within a Dutch disease context. Two main conclusions are that the decline of Nigerian agriculture during these years can be attributed to a combination of low real producer prices and insufficient government investment, as well as the overvalued Nigerian naira; and that the high real exchange rate may have benefited the manufacturing sector.

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