This analysis focuses on the foster child's movement through foster care placements and back to the home of the parent. Specifically, this analysis is concerned with how the probability of reunification changes with duration in substitute care. The main hypothesis is that this probability decreases with time in placement. How children with different characteristics vary in the probabilities of movement is also examined. A sample of nearly 1,200 of the 50,000 children who entered the care of the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services between July 1, 1976, and May 31, 1984, was selected. Using event-history models, it was shown that (1) there is a decreasing probability of reunification in the first three transitions to the home of the parent as duration in placement increases, (2) there is a great decline in the probability of reunification after the first few weeks in placement, (3) the greatest decrease in the probability of reunification occurs for abused and neglected children, and (4) the home of the relative as a type of placement is the most stable placement.
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