An extension to fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains

Francisco Campuzano Bolarín · Josefa Mula · David Peidro

20 citations0/0 files storedInternational Journal of Production Research

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Supply Chain and Inventory Management Sustainable Supply Chain Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Campuzano, Mula, and Peidro (“Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains.” Fuzzy Sets and Systems 161: 1530–1542) evaluate the behaviour of fuzzy estimations of demand instead of exponential smoothing for demand forecasts in a two-level (manufacturer and end customer) supply chain and demonstrate how the bullwhip effect and the amplification of inventory variance (NSAmp) can be effectively reduced. In this note, we extend and test the previous model to a three-level supply chain which consists of an end consumer, a retailer and a manufacturer. Here, the model is tested by using both Gaussian and autoregressive demand patterns. We show that the bullwhip effect and NSAmp also reduce at the level where fuzzy orders exist with good fill rate values.

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References

1986Inventories and the volatility of production 2000Measuring the bullwhip effect in the supply chain 1994Dynamic analysis of a WIP compensated decision support system 2009On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: supply chain collaboration and order smoothing 2009Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains 2012Metrics for bullwhip effect analysis 2011Adaptive fuzzy vendor managed inventory control for mitigating the Bullwhip effect in supply chains 2009Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems–a simulation approach

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2014Modelling and analysis of the bullwhip effect with customers’ baulking behaviours and production capacity constraint 2020Integrating Inventory and Transport Capacity Planning in a Food Supply Chain 2019A rolling horizon simulation approach for managing demand with lead time variability

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