Oil Prices, Welfare, and the Trade Balance

Abstract

The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It is shown that the welfare effects consist of static terms-of-trade effects, intertemporal terms-of-trade effects, and employment effects. The trade balance deteriorates for temporary oil price increases; whereas its response is ambiguous for permanent oil price increases. For a fall in the world interest rate, the trade balance deteriorates if the economy is a net borrower.

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