Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy

Abstract

Forecasting is one of the most important activities performed by professionals in support of public policymaking. In a world dominated by utilitarian thinking, policymakers regularly seek forecasts of the costs and consequences of alternative courses of action from planners, engineers, economists, and others. Many of the most interesting and complex ethical dilemmas facing these professionals arise from the complexity of the forecasting task and from the enormous political consequences of their forecasts. Forecasts are presented to the public as the results of unbiased scientific procedures, yet they are in reality often highly subjective exercises in advocacy. Professionals who must prepare forecasts are frequently confused by the mixed signals which they get. According to law, and in the eyes of the public, their forecasts are expected to provide analyses aimed at clarifying choices among courses of action. But their direct superiors and clients expect them to produce forecasts which will become part of the supporting documentation justifying a course of action which has already been chosen for political reasons. In the end, forecasts are often expected to be advocacy which at the same time can be presented to the public for political reasons as the results of unbiased analysis. For many forecasters this duplicity of purposes is deeply distressing, and for society at large it results in countless expenditures on projects and programs which are desired by politicians, but which could not be justified on the basis of utilitarian calculations. In this paper, I will demonstrate first'that there is indeed a serious ethical problem related to forecasting, which has serious political conse quences for our democracy, and immediate personal consequences for those preparing the forecasts. Secondly, I will expand upon the conditions which lead to the ethical dilemmas for forecasters in public policymaking. Finally, I will suggest some actions which might be taken to provide those making forecasts with improved ethical guideposts to help them cope with these complex situations.

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