Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985

George W. Evans

196 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Applied Econometrics

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Unemployment and Economic Growth Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

Abstract For US data over 1950–1985 the stochastic components of GNP growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary, and there is substantial feedback between these variables. The unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the ‘business cycle’. A bivariate VAR model is used to describe output–unemployment dynamics, to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations, and to decompose output into trend and cycle. The bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted VAR and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the Okun's Law equation.

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References

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1993Testing for unit roots and persistence in OECD unemployment rates 1995Cyclical output, cyclical unemployment, and Okun's coefficient: A new approach 2018Economic growth and unemployment issue: Panel data analysis in Eastern European Countries 2001The non‐linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.1998Okun's law, cointegration and gap variables 2010VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision

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