Estimating Adult Mortality with Maternal Orphanhood Data: Analysis of Sensitivity of the Techniques

Abstract

Summary Techniques based on proportions of maternal orphans have been widely used to estimate women's mortality at adult ages. Such techniques are based on relatively few but significantly strong assumptions. As real conditions may depart to different degrees from the latter, the results obtained from the application of the technique can be biased. In this paper we assess the magnitude and direction of the bias introduced when: (a) mortality has changed during the past, (b) the practice of adoption permits the continuity of the relation offspring-mother upon the death of the biological mother, and (c) different processes of selection involving fertility, mortality of mothers and mortality of offspring operate. In addition, we suggest other methods to correct such biases or procedures to detect them and the actual range of errors involved.

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