A model to forecast aircraft operations at general aviation airports

Abstract

Abstract Forecasting the demand for aviation activities is an important task in economic planning. Traditionally, forecasting the demand for general aviation airports has been done using trend and ratio analyses. Both techniques ignore the changes in many external factors that influence aviation activities. This paper develops an econometric model that relates the number of aircraft operations at a general aviation airport to some socioeconomic characteristics and supply variables. The model was estimated using data for 82 airports in the state of Georgia. The results of estimating the model suggest that the demand is inelastic with respect to total employment. The results also show that presence of aviation related services such as avionics, charter flights, rental, repair and crop dusting are important factors in determining aviation activities. The demand seems to be responsive to the location of the county as a tourist/recreational destination.

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