Estimating the Proportion of American Marriages That End in Divorce

Samuel H. Preston

29 citations0/0 files storedSociological Methods & Research

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Family Dynamics and Relationships Marriage and Family Dynamics Census and Population Estimation

Abstract

This paper reviews and develops techniques of estimating the proportion of marriages that end in divorce which are based on disruption rates observed during a particular period of time. A source of bias in commonly used indirect estimation procedures is identified and methods of adjusting for the bias are developed. Application of the new techniques to American data of 1973 suggests that 44% of marriages would end in divorce under disruption rates of that year.

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1974Marriage, Divorce, and Mortality: A Life Table Analysis 1973Perspectives on the recent upturn in divorce and remarriage

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1977An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability 2014Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010 1980Education and Fertility: Implications for the Roles Women Occupy 1979The incidence of divorce within cohorts of American marriages contracted since the civil war 1981An Evaluation of Court Mediation 1976Toward a Sociotechnological Theory of the Women's Movement 1976Economics of Marital Instability 1987Divorce

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