BOON OR BURDEN? THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT ON THE RISK OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Oya Celasun · Philipp Harms

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Global Financial Crisis and Policies Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Credit Risk and Financial Regulations

Abstract

We explore how the share of the private sector in total external debt affects perceived creditworthiness and the likelihood of sovereign default in developing countries. While there are theoretical arguments both in favor and against a stabilizing role of private-sector borrowing, the evidence supports the notion that a greater share of the private sector in total external debt is associated with a reduced likelihood of sovereign default. (JEL F34, O16)

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