A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Adam J. Pel · Michiel C.J. Bliemer · Serge Paul Hoogendoorn

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Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic control and management

Abstract

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.

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References

2007Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses: Individual and Household 1991Hurricane Evacuation Behavior 2005Household Decision Making and Evacuation in Response to Hurricane Lili 2003A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing 2011Evacuation Dynamics: Empirical Results, Modeling and Applications 2005Understanding Mass Panic and Other Collective Responses to Threat and Disaster 1998Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders 2001Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior

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