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Demonstrating and eliminating the aggregation effect in physical skill tasks
16 references·4 citing·44 second hop
Demonstrating and eliminating the aggregation effect in physical skill tasks (2009)Demonstrating and eliminating the aggrega…The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)The trouble with overconfiden…Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability (2007)Numeracy, ratio bias, and den…Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking (2000)Timid Choices and Bold Foreca…The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges (1996)The base rate fallacy reconsi…Subjective probability (1995)Subjective probabilityThe Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (1994)The Overconfidence Phenomenon…Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking (1993)Timid Choices and Bold Foreca…The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence (1992)The weighing of evidence and …The overconfidence effect in social prediction. (1990)The overconfidence effect in …The case for motivated reasoning. (1990)The case for motivated reason…On Being Better but not Smarter than Others: The Muhammad Ali Effect (1989)On Being Better but not Smart…Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. (1985)Counterfactual reasoning and …External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score (1982)External correspondence: Deco…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Attribution and the psychology of prediction. (1975)Attribution and the psycholog…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Thinking without knowing: Psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence regarding blackjack strategy (2023)Thinking without knowing: Psy…Calibration of scientific reasoning ability (2022)Calibration of scientific rea…Is there more than one ratio bias? If so, why? (2021)Is there more than one ratio …On the role of rarity information in speakers’ choice of frame (2014)On the role of rarity informa…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Feeling and thinking: Preferences need no inferences. (1980)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations (2007)Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: Associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. (2008)Opportunities and challenges of Web 2.0 for vaccination decisions (2012)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics (2003)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1963)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Affective Forecasting (2003)Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (2004)Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (2013)Behavioral Study of obedience. (1963)Attribution theory in social psychology (1967)Social roles, social control, and biases in social-perception processes. (1977)The perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers. (1980)The dilution effect: Nondiagnostic information weakens the implications of diagnostic information (1981)The Handbook of Social Psychology (1969)Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises (1998)Well-being : the foundations of hedonic psychology (1999)False-Positive Psychology (2011)A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (2017)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)A power primer. (1992)Society and the Adolescent Self-Image (1965)Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. (1999)Algorithm Aversion: People Erroneously Avoid Algorithms after Seeing Them Err (2014)Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment (2019)Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources (2019)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach (1999)Flawed Self-Assessment (2004)
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References

  • 1990The case for motivated reasoning.9,014 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 2008The trouble with overconfidence.2,347 cited
  • 1993Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking2,041 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1992The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence1,842 cited
  • 2000Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking1,277 cited
  • 1996The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges763 cited
  • 1975Attribution and the psychology of prediction.642 cited
  • 2007Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability486 cited
  • 1990The overconfidence effect in social prediction.431 cited
  • 1985Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.430 cited
  • 1982External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score428 cited
  • 1995Subjective probability364 cited
  • 1994The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items323 cited

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  • 1989On Being Better but not Smarter than Others: The Muhammad Ali Effect321 cited
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    • 2014On the role of rarity information in speakers’ choice of frame10 cited
    • 2022Calibration of scientific reasoning ability8 cited
    • 2021Is there more than one ratio bias? If so, why?5 cited
    • 2023Thinking without knowing: Psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence regarding blackjack strategy5 cited