Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality

Anna Serena Vergori

40 citations0/0 files storedTourism Economics

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research Hospitality and Tourism Education

Abstract

Most tourism destinations are affected by seasonality. Seasonal demand causes various problems for local firms and administrations hampering the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities. This paper discusses, from an econometric point of view, another important issue stemming from strong seasonality: the effect on forecasting tourist flows. This aspect of seasonality is addressed through an analysis of tourist arrivals in the Province of Lecce, southern Italy.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1992Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root 1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1993Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data 1996Co-Integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non- Stationary Data.1990Seasonal integration and cointegration 2007Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research 1993Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data

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