Order effects in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence

Richard M. Tubbs · Gary J. Gaeth · Irwin P. Levin · Laura A. Van Osdol

38 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Behavioral Decision Making

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Memory Processes and Influences Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Abstract

Abstract The current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief‐adjustment model. The results, based on both between‐subjects and within‐subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within‐subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and theory.

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References

1992Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model 1985Analysis of Messy Data, Volume I: Designed Experiments 1994The research process 1986Validity and the Research Process.1950Experimental Designs 1984Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers 1988Sequential Belief Revision in Auditing.1986The Robustness of the Recency Effect: Studies Using Legal Evidence

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