THE CYCLICAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY REGIMES*

Scott J. Dressler

11 citations0/0 files storedInternational Economic Review

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Economic theories and models

Abstract

A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72–95% of all observed changes, including inside money preceding the business cycle and a qualitative change in the cyclical behavior of the monetary base.

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References

1969Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods 1993Discretion versus policy rules in practice 2005INTEREST AND PRICES: FOUNDATIONS OF A THEORY OF MONETARY POLICY 2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*1972MONEY, INCOME, AND CAUSALITY 2017A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 1952The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach 1986Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement

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