Economic development, cognitive dissonance and the theory of change

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines causal models used to explain conflict interactions between aid donors and aid recipients in the Third World and proposals to resolve the conflicts. These adversarial relationships are accentuated by efforts to change economic systems and policies without addressing the underlying belief systems of policy makers and governing elites in Third World nations. Several theories are examined, including cognitive dissonance, information theory, spiral loops and dissipative structures which attempt to explain decision making processes. It is proposed that, new information to change the decision making process is not so much lacking as it is ignored, being at odds with accepted paradigms and the self‐interest and beliefs of elite groups, whose goals may not be consistent. It is concluded that strategies, which seek acceptance of policy adjustments without concern for a prerequisite paradigm shift in elite belief systems, are not likely to succeed. The success in resolving the domestic internal conflict among these coalitions may be a prerequisite to the resolution of adversarial relationships of national systems with international institutions. Some strategies are suggested at arriving at this resolution.

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