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Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts

Kevin Dowd · David P. Blake · Andrew J. G. Cairns

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications Global Health Care Issues

Abstract

This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections. The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes.

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References

2002Broken Limits to Life Expectancy 2005A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2005A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century 1998Biodemographic Trajectories of Longevity 2006A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration 2002A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables 2009A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States

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