Lifetime probability of additional births by age and parity for American women, 1935–1968: A new measurement of period fertility

Chal Bin Park

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Family Dynamics and Relationships Reproductive Health and Contraception Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences

Abstract

A new fertility measurement, probability that a woman of specified parity and age will bear a given number of births in her remaining lifetime, is proposed in this article. The measurement is a summary index of a set of age-parity-specific birth probabilities and in a particular case it is conceptually analogous to the total fertility by birth order but free from the influence of the parity distribution. Fertility of American women for the period 1935-1968 was studied by use of such lifetime probabilities. It appears that the trend of fertility of high birth orders has been parallel with that of low orders. Initiation of the recent decline in fertility depends on parity and age of woman.

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References

1973The Methods and Materials of Demography.1961Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries 1978Population Bulletin of the United Nations.1973The Methods and Materials of Demography.1941Birth Rates and the Interwar Business Cycles 1970Trends and Variations in Fertility in the United States.1968Trends and Variations in Fertility in the United States 1970Probabilistic fertility models of the life table type

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