China's One-Child Policy: How and How Well Has it Worked? A Case Study of Hebei Province, 1979-88

Abstract

Analysis of data from the 1988 Two-Per-Thousand National Fertility Survey in China was used to compare the impact of the 1-child policy among workers and peasants in Hebei province. The sample includes 14808 infants born during January 1980-August 1988. 48% were born with a permit and 88% (6238) were 1st births. 86% of 1st births were born with a permit. Only 11% with 2nd or higher-parity births which constituted 51% (7547) of births during the study period were born with a permit. Permits for higher-parity births were given due to the death or disablement of a previous child and special circumstances. 21% of 2nd and higher-parity births were given permits due to son preference. More than 20% with a 1-child certificate went on to have a 2nd child. Only 12% of peasant women accepted the certificate. Financial penalties for not having the certificate were received by 3005 of the 6308 women who violated the 1-child policy. 99% of women receiving a fine were peasants. The average penalty was 451 yuan ($122) out of an average net annual income in peasant households of 1651 yuan ($446) or 27% of family income in penalties. 82% paid the total fine. 9387 women out of 17836 had a child before the policy was implemented of whom 2661 had more children regardless of the policy. Fertility was 2.7 children for peasant women and 1.9 for worker women. Fertility after 1979 was 1.6 for peasants and 1.1 for workers. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to show the likelihood of peasant women having a higher-parity birth and all women progressing to a 2nd parity. Socioeconomic development was found to have a negative effect on the likelihood of a higher-parity birth. After controls for worker status and socioeconomic development women with a female child were found to be more likely to have a 2nd or 3rd child. Probabilities increased also due to residence with parents particularly for peasants. For workers the certificate had a stronger impact than cultural and socioeconomic factors. Women living in towns or workers were less likely to be fined but women living in cities or farmers were more likely to be fined. The likelihood of being fined was greater during 1980-84.

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