THE VALUE OF THE VOTE: A MODEL AND TEST OF THE EFFECTS OF TURNOUT ON DISTRIBUTIVE POLICY

Abstract

This article demonstrates important effects of voter participation. A model shows why, for some types of distributive policy, incumbents are more likely to be reelected if high‐turnout regions receive more funds than do low‐turnout regions. The model predicts, therefore, greater allocations to high‐turnout regions. This prediction is tested with county‐level data from the New Deal's Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA). The estimates suggest that by voting rather than not voting, an individual increased by about $30 the expected FERA allocation for the individual's county. The size of the estimated effect differs across states.(JELD72, N42)

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