Modern Fertility Patterns: Contrasts between the United States and Japan

Abstract

In the United States Ryder (1969 1980) has documented the emergence of a modem fertility pattern characterized by nearly universal parenthood relatively early ages at childbearing very small families and the dominance of timing shifts (over number shifts) in affecting fertility rates. While small families are characteristic of both the United States and Japan two other features of this modern pattern-the timing of the first birth and the proportion remaining permanently childless-vary considerably. Comparison of the US and Japanese 1950 birth cohort provides a good example of these contrasts. Figure 1 shows the proportion remaining childless by age (using vital registration data for the two countries). The US data are restricted to white women to produce a more homogeneous comparison. Note that the Japanese cohort shows a much later pattern of childbearing. Few Japanese women become mothers until their early 20s whereas teenage motherhood is common in the United States. Despite getting a later start relative to the US cohort the Japanese cohort clearly will show much lower rates of permanent childlessness. Thus there are distinct differences in two key features of the modem fertility pattern. Historically within Japan and regions of Western Europe the timing of family formation varied sharply across both time and space. Age at marriage for men was tied to the accumulation of capital assets; for women to levels of fecundity and infant mortality. Overall though age at marriage in the West and in Japan may have been more similar in the premodern period than today. (excerpt)

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