Reliability and Predictive Validity of a Consensus-Based Risk Assessment Tool

James G. Barber · Aron Shlonsky · Tara L. Black · Deborah Goodman · Nico Trocmé

33 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Public Child Welfare

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Child Welfare and Adoption Social Work Education and Practice Child Abuse and Trauma

Abstract

This study examines the reliability and predictive validity of the risk assessment tool used in Ontario, Canada. For the reliability portion of the study, a stratified random sample of 132 cases receiving services was drawn from one of Ontario's largest children's aid societies. Predictive validity was tested on 1,118 cases that were selected and administratively followed for varying lengths of time. Internal consistency was poor to fair; inter-rater reliability was greater than would be expected by chance alone in eight of the 23 risk items. Survival analysis revealed mostly poor predictive capacity for individual items and no predictive capacity for caseworkers' subjective overall risk rating.

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References

1992A power primer.1988Observing Interaction: An Introduction to Sequential Analysis 2000The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems 1999The future of child protection: how to break the cycle of abuse and neglect 1991Risk assessment: the emperor's new clothes?2000Risk assessment in child protective services: consensus and actuarial model reliability.1996Risk assessment for child protective services: A review of the empirical literature on instrument performance 2000Modeling the reliability and predictive validity of risk assessment in child protective services

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