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Feedback and the forecasting of exponential change
8 references·12 citing·48 second hop
Feedback and the forecasting of exponential change (1991)Feedback and the forecasting of exponenti…Cultural differences in the misperception of exponential growth (1983)Cultural differences in the m…Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Conservatism in human informa…Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. (1981)Beyond discrete biases: Funct…The pond-and-duckweed problem; Three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth (1979)The pond-and-duckweed problem…Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth (1977)Inverse statistics and misper…Bayesian Forecasting (1976)Bayesian ForecastingMisperception of exponential growth (1975)Misperception of exponential …Single-cue probability learning as a function of the sign and magnitude of the correlation between cue and criterion (1973)Single-cue probability learni…Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation (2023)Exponential growth bias in th…Behavioral economics in information systems research: Critical analysis and research strategies (2021)Behavioral economics in infor…Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors? (2019)Misperception of Exponential …Exponential‐growth Bias in Experimental Consumption Decisions (2019)Exponential‐growth Bias in Ex…Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias (2017)Individual preferences and th…In Equations We Trust? Formula Knowledge Effects on the Exponential Growth Bias in Household Finance Decisions (2017)In Equations We Trust? Formul…In Equations We Trust? Formula Learning Effects on the Exponential Growth Bias in Household Finance Decisions (2014)In Equations We Trust? Formul…How Economic Laypeople Perceive Economic Growth and Inflation (2008)How Economic Laypeople Percei…Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? (1999)Combining forecasts: What inf…Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature (1996)Judgemental and statistical t…Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting (1994)Heuristics, biases and improv…Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research (1993)Improving judgmental time ser…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Analytic Hierarchy Process (1985)Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters (2000)Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment (2000)Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning (2009)Intuitive inference strategies in interval learning tasks as a function of validity magnitude and sign (1968)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information (1996)The conceptual basis of function learning and extrapolation: Comparison of rule-based and associative-based models (2005)The Effects of Financial Statement and Informational Complexity on Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts (2008)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice (2003)Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football (2005)The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review (2018)Naive beliefs in “sophisticated” subjects: misconceptions about trajectories of objects (1981)Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting (2011)PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL‐GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS (2019)Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Learning in and about complex systems (1994)Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years (2006)The sciences of science communication (2013)Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. (1966)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Social cognitive theory of self-regulation (1991)The correspondence bias. (1995)A Theory of Goal Setting and Task Performance (1991)Trust in motives, trust in competence: Separate factors determining the effectiveness of risk communication (2008)Why do so few people share fake news? It hurts their reputation (2020)The risk of algorithm transparency: How algorithm complexity drives the effects on the use of advice (2022)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Little Science, Big Science (1963)Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation (1981)Boom, Bust, and Failures to Learn in Experimental Markets (1993)Thinking about systems: student and teacher conceptions of natural and social systems (2007)Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. (1971)Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts (1974)Curve Fitting and Optimal Design for Prediction (1978)A Bayesian Analysis of Kriging (1993)The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China (2022)A model of investor sentiment /The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1982Conservatism in human information processing1,004 cited
  • 1976Bayesian Forecasting671 cited
  • 1981Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics.613 cited
  • 1975Misperception of exponential growth293 cited
  • 1979The pond-and-duckweed problem; Three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth163 cited
  • 1983Cultural differences in the misperception of exponential growth55 cited
  • 1973Single-cue probability learning as a function of the sign and magnitude of the correlation between cue and criterion54 cited
  • 1977Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth52 cited

Cited by

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  • 1993Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research103 cited
  • 1999Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?95 cited
  • 1994Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting47 cited
  • 2021Behavioral economics in information systems research: Critical analysis and research strategies31 cited
  • 2017In Equations We Trust? Formula Knowledge Effects on the Exponential Growth Bias in Household Finance Decisions

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13 cited
  • 2019Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors?10 cited
  • 2017Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias7 cited
  • 2023Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation5 cited
  • 2019Exponential‐growth Bias in Experimental Consumption Decisions5 cited
  • 2014In Equations We Trust? Formula Learning Effects on the Exponential Growth Bias in Household Finance Decisions2 cited
  • 2008How Economic Laypeople Perceive Economic Growth and Inflation0 cited