Modeling misperceptions in games

Abstract

In this article, a new method, called improved hypergame analysis, is developed for studying a conflict in which one or more players have misunderstood the true nature of the dispute. The method can be used for analyzing disputes having any finite number of participants consisting of individuals, organizations, nations or any kind of societal group. In order to extend the usefulness of hypergame analysis, the new and comprehensive approach is presented by giving the theoretical definitions, mathematical models, and practical procedures for performing a hypergame stability analysis. Because of the improvements to hypergame analysis, a conflict having misperceptions can be rigorously and accurately modeled and the perceived resolutions to the dispute can be properly ascertained.

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