The Effects of Expectations on Technology Adoption: Some Empirical Evidence

Abstract

N. Rosenberg (1976) argues that in many markets prospective buyers for an innovation are strongly influenced by expectations '. . . concerning the timing and significance of future improvements . . .' The primary objectives of this article are to provide a model of the innovation decision process of user firms that expect improvements in current best technology and to offer an empirical study that tests the model's predictions. Among other results, the author finds empirical support for Rosenberg's argument and demonstrates theoretically that, compared to models without technological expectations and learning, the optimal decision process is nonmonotonic. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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