The J‐Curve Effect and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance

Colin Andre Carter · Daniel Pick

53 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

Abstract According to the J‐curve theory, following a currency depreciation, there will be an initial deterioration of the trade balance before an improvement is realized. This paper finds empirical evidence indicating the first segment of the J‐curve does exist for the U.S. agricultural trade balance. A 10% depreciation of the U.S. dollar is estimated to lead a deterioration of the agricultural trade balance that will last for about nine months.

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1986The theory and practice of econometrics 1989Is there a J-curve?1973Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation 2002EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION 1973Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries 1980Short-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Terms of Trade and Trade Balance (Incidence a court terme des variations du taux de change sur les termes de l'echange et la balance commerciale) (Efectos a corto plazo de las variaciones del tipo de cambio sobre la relacion de intercambio y la balanza comercial)1986Monetary Policy, Real Exchange Rates, and U.S. Agricultural Exports

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