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Estimating the Probability Distribution of the Future Exchange Rate from Option Prices
6 references·16 citing·41 second hop
Estimating the Probability Distribution of the Future Exchange Rate from Option Prices (1997)Estimating the Probability Distribution o…Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis (1997)Recovering an Asset's Implied…New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments (1997)New Techniques to Extract Mar…Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options (1996)Jumps and Stochastic Volatili…Implied Binomial Trees (1994)Implied Binomial TreesForeign currency option values (1983)Foreign currency option valuesPrices of State-Contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices (1978)Prices of State-Contingent Cl…Investor attention and FX market volatility (2015)Investor attention and FX mar…Predictable Dynamics in Higher-Order Risk-Neutral Moments: Evidence from the S&P 500 Options (2013)Predictable Dynamics in Highe…Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange (2011)Spot and forward volatility i…Terrorism and Stock Market Sentiment (2010)Terrorism and Stock Market Se…Estimating the Implied Risk‐Neutral Density for the US Market Portfolio* (2010)Estimating the Implied Risk‐N…Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums☆ (2010)Differences in beliefs and cu…The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks (2009)The information content of im…Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims (2008)Measuring and Analyzing Sover…Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options (2007)Theory and evidence on the dy…The Accuracy of Density Forecasts from Foreign Exchange Options (2005)The Accuracy of Density Forec…Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate (2005)Foreign exchange market inter…Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion (2004)Option-Implied Risk-Neutral D…Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation (2003)Estimation of risk-neutral de…A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options (2003)A new approach to modeling th…Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review (1999)Option Implied Risk-Neutral D…A Quantile Regression Approach to Estimating the Distribution of Multiperiod Returns (1999)A Quantile Regression Approac…The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities (1973)Theory of Rational Option Pricing (1973)Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values (1987)Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (2004)Theory of rational option pricing (2005)Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility (2012)Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation (1982)Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1986)Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation (1994)Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation (2002)Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing (2004)A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach (2010)Theory of Value (1959)Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests (1998)Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross‐Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time‐Varying (2001)The pricing of commodity contracts (1976)The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes (1976)Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns (1996)Density forecasting: a survey (2000)Testing the stability of implied probability density functions (2002)Option pricing: A simplified approach (1979)Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market (2000)Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options (2003)An Engine, Not a Camera (2006)Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review (2003)The Econometrics of Option Pricing (2010)Anatomy of a meltdown: The risk neutral density for the S&P 500 in the fall of 2008 (2011)Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk (2018)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options (1993)Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach (2011)Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root (1979)Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression (1988)Retail investor attention and herding behavior (2020)Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets (2020)Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets (2022)Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous (1976)A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1985)The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing (1998)Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform (1999)The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns (2003)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1996Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options2,272 cited
  • 1978Prices of State-Contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices2,209 cited
  • 1994Implied Binomial Trees1,749 cited
  • 1983Foreign currency option values1,078 cited
  • 1997Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis380 cited
  • 1997New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments233 cited

Cited by

  • 2010Estimating the Implied Risk‐Neutral Density for the US Market Portfolio*176 cited
  • 1999A Quantile Regression Approach to Estimating the Distribution of Multiperiod Returns137 cited
  • 2004Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion134 cited
  • 2015Investor attention and FX market volatility131 cited
  • 2008Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims122 cited
  • 2003Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation119 cited
  • 2007Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options119 cited
  • 2010Terrorism and Stock Market Sentiment118 cited
  • 2009

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks
111 cited
  • 2005Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate106 cited
  • 2010Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums☆101 cited
  • 2013Predictable Dynamics in Higher-Order Risk-Neutral Moments: Evidence from the S&P 500 Options99 cited
  • 2011Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange84 cited
  • 1999Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review78 cited
  • 2003A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options75 cited
  • 2005The Accuracy of Density Forecasts from Foreign Exchange Options68 cited