Experimental implications for the Spiral of Silence

Abstract

Tests of Noelle-Neumann’s Spiral of Silence theory have resulted in equivocal findings on many of the key assumptions on which the theory is built. Either qualified support or no support for this theory has been the case in much of the literature, often leaving its utility in question. The present study tests the core propositions of the Spiral of Silence theory in an experimental, fictitious “climate of opinion.” In manipulating the “climate of opinion” and in analyzing its influence upon several key variables, this study expands Noelle-Neumann’s concept of public opinion into a more robust theoretical construct to include macro, micro, and group level opinion and its influence on survey respondents. The results of the experiment produced mixed evidence on propositions about the direct influence of the climate of opinion upon respondents’ formation of opinions and perceptions of the climate of opinion and their peer group’s opinion. Limited support was also found for the proposition that the climate of opinion affects individuals’ willingness to express their opinion in public. However, no support was found for the theoretical claim that the climate of opinion affects individual’s perception of current or future trends of opinion.

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