SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DECISION THEORY

James R. Evans

64 citations0/0 files storedDecision Sciences

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Multi-Criteria Decision Making Capital Investment and Risk Analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper explores linear programming‐like sensitivity analysis in decision theory. In particular, the paper considers the sensitivity of an optimal decision to changes in probabilities of the states of nature and the development of “confidence spheres” to bound arbitrary parametric changes in the probability vector. Such information can be used to assess the accuracy required in assigning probabilities and the confidence in the maximumutility decision.

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1964Decision and value theory

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