Transformative scenario planning: changing the future by exploring alternatives

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to describe “transformative scenario planning,” a methodology that enables people trying to change the future collaboratively to transform, rather than adapt to, a situation. Design/methodology/approach The process centers on constructing scenarios of possible futures for a situation, but takes the well‐established adaptive scenario planning methodology and turns it on its head – to construct scenarios not only to understand the future, but also to influence it. Findings Transformative scenario planning teams have tackled some of the most important and difficult challenges of our time: health care, economic development, and climate change across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Some of these teams succeeded in changing their situation and others have failed. Practical implications The five steps of transformative scenario planning are: convening a team from across the whole system; observing what is happening; constructing stories about what could happen; discovering what can and must be done; and acting to transform the system. Originality/value The process centers on constructing scenarios of possible futures for a situation, not only to understand the future, but also to learn how to influence it.

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