Ruin probabilities via local adjustment coefficients

Abstract

Let ψ(u) be the ruin probability in a risk process with initial reserve u, Poisson arrival rate β, claim size distribution B and premium rate p(x) at level x of the reserve. Let y(x) be the non-zero solution of the local Lundberg equation . It is shown that is non-decreasing and that log ψ(u) ≈ –I(u) in a slow Markov walk limit. Though the results and conditions are of large deviations type, the proofs are elementary and utilize piecewise comparisons with standard risk processes with a constant p. Also simulation via importance sampling using local exponential change of measure defined in terms of the γ(x) is discussed and some numerical results are presented.

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