The determinants of the composition of public debt in developing and emerging market countries

Kristine Forslund · Lycia Lima · Ugo G. Panizza

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Abstract

This paper uses a new dataset on the composition of public debt in developing and emerging market countries to look at the correlation between country characteristics and domestic debt share. While the paper finds that most variables have the expected sign, it also finds that country characteristics cannot explain regional differences in the composition of public debt. Moreover, the paper finds a weak correlation between inflationary history and the composition of public debt. The paper explores the determinants of this finding and shows that the results are driven by the presence of capital controls.

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References

1981Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic 1984Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic 2004Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words 2011The Liquidation of Government Debt 1989Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations* *I have greatly benefited from comments received at Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, the Macro Lunch Group of the University of Pennsylvania, MIT, and the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. I am particularly indebted to Matt Canzoneri, Sara Guerschanik-Calvo, Joseph Harrington, Jr, Elhanan Helpman, Nissan Leviatan, Maury Obstfeld, Assaf Razin, Sweder van Wijnbergen and two anonymous referees. The research on this paper was partly done while I was a visiting scholar at the Research Department of the Internationed Monetary Fund, and it was partially funded by the National Science Foundation. However, any opinions expressed are entirely my own and not those of any of the above institutions. This paper has already been published in the The American Economic Review, 78, 4, September 1988, pp. 647–661.2005Other People's Money 2005The Pain of Original Sin 2008Domestic and External Public Debt in Developing Countries

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