An Activity-Based Model of Travel Demand in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area

Abstract

The goal of the study is to develop a comprehensive activity-based modeling system in the context of developing countries, providing accurate estimates which are expected to serve as better inputs for evaluation of different transportation policy scenarios. The case study is Jakarta, Indonesia as one of the largest metropolitan areas in Asia. The modeling system primarily adopts a tour-based structure in which the tour is used as the unit of modeling travel instead of the trip, preserving a consistency in destination, mode, and time of day across trips. The model is developed using the available activity diary survey and household travel survey data. It is a system of disaggregate logit and nested logit models assuming a hierarchy of the model components, with three major models (choices of daily activity-travel pattern, times of day, and mode and destination) with two additional sub-models (choices of mode and destination for work-based sub-tours, and intermediate stop locations). In Jakarta, a variety of urban transportation policy scenarios such as extension of bus rapid transit, area pricing, and license plate restriction are currently being examined, discussed, or implemented. It is hoped that the new models developed in this study will contribute to better understanding of urban travel behavior and improvement of the travel demand forecasting models that will result in better evaluation of urban transportation policy scenarios in the region.

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