Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

1971-12-01articleJournal of the American Statistical Association1,228 citationsclosed

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Probability and Statistical Research Game Theory and Applications

Abstract

Proper scoring rules, i.e., devices of a certain class for eliciting a person's probabilities and other expectations, are studied, mainly theoretically but with some speculations about application. The relation of proper scoring rules to other economic devices and to the foundations of the personalistic theory of probability is brought out. The implications of various restrictions, especially symmetry restrictions, on scoring rules is explored, usually with a minimum of regularity hypothesis.

Citations in this library

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 1,228 citations exist upstream.

References

1964Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large

1976Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large

1953Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine

1948The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk

1971Utility Theory for Decision Making

1969Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty.

1970UTILITY THEORY FOR DECISION MAKING

1952Rational Decisions

Cited by

2007Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

2001The Theory of Incentives: The Principal-Agent Model

2004Measuring Expectations

2011Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts

1986Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography

2014Probabilistic Forecasting

1983The Comparison and Evaluation of Forecasters

1979Expected Information as Expected Utility