Evaluating Predictions of Change

M. H. Schnader · Herman O. Stekler

115 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Business

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies

Abstract

This article applies a technique developed by Robert C. Merton (1981) and Roy D. Henriksson and Robert C. Merton (1981) for evaluating the market timing of financial managers to macroeconomic predictions of change. This methodology may be used to determine whether the predictions may be of value to the user. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a set of real gross national product forecasts. Copyright 1990 by the University of Chicago.

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2015On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills 2011On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

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