A review and critique of current methods used to predict traffic generation with some accompanying suggestions on alternative approaches

Abstract

An important aspect of planning for new developments is to predict the amount of generated traffic. This is a necessary input both for traffic design and traffic planning activities. In this paper conceptual problems in measuring traffic generation are outlined, then examples given of estimates currently used in Australia and the United States. Two land use categories are highlighted, residential and retailing, since these probably represent the best and worst of current practice. Deficiencies with the techniques used to estimate generated traffic for both these land use categories are noted. Suggestions are then made on improvements to current methodology. A contribution is to show how O‐D travel survey data could be used to obtain traffic generation estimates for residential and retailing developments. It is recognised, however, that current traffic generation methodology is essentially flawed and an altogether new approach may be needed. One new approach based on economic individual choice theory is outlined.

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