The prebisch‐singer terms of trade controversy revisited

David Sapsford · Prabirjit Sarkar · H. W. Singer

63 citations0/0 files storedJournal of International Development

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Global trade and economics Historical Economic and Social Studies Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

Abstract The controversy surrounding the long‐run trend in the terms of trade between primary products and manufactured goods is a topic which continues to attract considerable research attention. This paper provides a detailed review of the controversy and offers a re‐examination of the statistical evidence. The results reported in this paper raise serious doubts regarding Cuddington and Urzua's (1989) conclusion that, apart from an abrupt drop after 1920, the net barter terms of trade have been trendless over the twentieth century.

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References

1982Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series 1950The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems 1975The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries 1990Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series With a Changing Mean 1983The Econometric Analysis of Time Series.1988Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows 2014The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries 1980The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade Between Primary Commodities and Manufactures

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2004On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices 1997STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND LONG-RUN TRENDS IN COMMODITY PRICES 2013Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices 2001The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination 2023The role of economic growth and governance on mineral rents in main critical minerals countries

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