Why Probability Has Not Succeeded in Sociology

Abstract

Arguably, sociologists often apply deterministic explanations, unlike in many other sciences where probabilistic explanations have turned out to be more efficient. The advantages of applying probabilistic explanations more frequently could be: improved possibilities for cross-disciplinary work; the simplification of successful explanations; an easier way to implement uncertainty to models; new ways to utilize the classical theories of sociology; and increased freedom to choose research methods. According to the previously published literature, one of the reasons for not applying probabilistic explanations has been the strong positivist heritage in sociology. The following additional factors are considered: important classics of sociology were written before probability theories matured; and qualitative methods have provided the possibility to respond to the need for empirical research. In this way, sociologists have avoided the extensive work of re-evaluating the existing theories from a probabilistic point of view.

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