Estimating the Expectation of Life at Older Ages

Abstract

Summary A mathematical formula expressing the expectation of life e(a) at age a as a function of the death rate, the average age and the rate of growth of the population in the age interval a and above has been derived on the assumption of a stable population model. The formula is particularly helpful in estimating life expectancies at old ages, where the age and death statistics are of questionable accuracy in many countries. It is comforting to note that for age 65 the estimator is remarkably insensitive to violations from the assumption of stability. This has been amply demonstrated by the estimates obtained for a number of countries.

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