Unlucky Victims or Lucky Survivors?

Abstract

Subjective experiences of good or bad luck appear to depend upon downward or upward comparisons with close counterfactuals. People exposed to disasters have both options: They were at the wrong place at the wrong time, but their fate could in many cases have been worse; so in a sense, they are unlucky victims, but lucky survivors. Interviews with 85 Norwegian tourists 9–11 months after they had been exposed to the tsunami disaster in Southeast Asia showed good luck to be a pivotal theme in a majority of the narratives. Nobody claimed they had been unfortunate or unlucky. Moreover, downward counterfactual thoughts and downward comparisons with others occurred 10 times more often than upward counterfactuals and upward comparisons. In a follow-up 2 years later, 95% answered they had been lucky. A contextual analysis revealed several facets of luck, including its relation to gratitude, guilt, and supernatural beliefs.

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