The Origins and Interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis

Abstract

The Prebisch-Singer thesis is generally taken to be the proposition that the net barter terms of trade between primary products (raw materials) and manufactures have been subject to a long-run downward trend.The publication dates of the first two works in English that expounded the thesis were nearly simultaneous.In May 1950, the English version of The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems, by Raúl Prebisch, appeared under the UN's imprint.In the same month Hans Singer published an article, "The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries," in the American Economic Review.The continuing significance of the "Prebisch-Singer thesis" is that it implies that, barring major changes in the structure of the world economy, the gains from trade will continue to be distributed unequally (and, some would add, unfairly) between nations exporting mainly primary products and those exporting mainly manufactures.Further, inequality of per capita income between these two types of countries will

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